check out Edmunds.com for the invoice price of the vehicle you're looking at (specific trim level, etc.) Ignore the fair market value BS. Start at invoice. stick tou your guns, and you ought to end up no more than a few hundred over. That said, if enough people go in and pay sticker, then deal-seekers will be out of luck.
Today I couldn't work a deal if I tried. However, we only tried one dealer, and he only had one EX 4WD left... I imagine you can get a very good deal, perhaps a steal, on a DX, they don't seem to be moving. We may have to end up persuing this route.